Lakeshore Analytics

Fed says 4-5 more years for homebuilding to rebound

A study by the San Francisco Fed estimates that new home construction may return to its long term averages by 2015 or 2016, assuming existing house prices rebound by 2014. In the attached chart, lines to the right of the vertical (2011) show two scenarios: the “50,000 decline” scenario in which the shadow inventory of [...]

‘Trend’ toward small new homes may already have reversed itself

Ever since the market crash of the late 2000′s, builders and market experts have said that small is in–consumers, having learned their lesson, will demand smaller homes in the future, eschewing the McMansions of excess and opting for ranches. Count me skeptical. This argument is a close cousin of the new urbanist theory that people [...]

U.S. is burning through new home inventory, but 8 month supply remains

This week the Commerce Department (specifically the U.S. Census) released housing starts for February. The monthly numbers show starts to be near a record low 472,000 units, or about 22.5% less than the previous month (figures are seasonally adjusted). This is unquestionably good news for the housing industry. One of the reasons for the price [...]