It will likely take a total of 60 to 80 months for employment to recover from the recession, according to a new chart (above) from Moody’s. (We will attempt to re-create the chart for the Chicago region for the next Chicago Housing Quarterly). So far, we are just shy of 40 months from the start of the recession in 2007.
Seven of the past eight recessions have fully regained private employment 40 months after the start of a recession.
Here is the Moody’s forecast from the Dismal.com blog:
If the economy musters a similar gain in November, private employment will not return to its December 2007 level until late 2014, later than we forecast. Through 2011, we expect monthly employment gains to average nearly 150,000, accelerating to 300,000 per month in 2012. Our baseline calls for private employment to return to its prerecession level in mid-2013