The graphic in this post appeared in Thursday’s Chicago Tribune (“Distressed homes: homeowners behind on payments,” Sept 30):
The article was based on an analysis by John Burns consulting, a highly respected home builder consultant in California, based on CoreLogic data. CoreLogic has access to closing documents for almost all real estate sales in the U.S.
The study found:
- Almost a fifth of all mortgages in the Chicago area are 30 days delinquent;
- These total over 200,000 homes that have not yet entered foreclosure, but soon may (more coming tomorrow on foreclosure sales)
- John Burns believes that 80 percent of these homes, or about 160,000, would actually go on the market as distressed sales (either foreclosure or short sales)
- Several zip codes in the south and west sides of Chicago have 90-day delinquency rates of over 25 percent
Readers should take the headlines on Case-Shiller with a very large dose of skepticism. Those headlines have little to no bearing on what a house would sell for in this climate. Next year, it is likely that this city — especially south and west side neighborhoods — will see a large number of properties dumped on the market.